forecasts openLive
The deepest coins on Pons get a forecast: the chance each one is above or below a price by a date. Say yes or no. The chain checks the answer.
Wallet required · Robinhood Chain 4663
How to read it
The lower the chance, the bigger the payout. Put in 0.1 ETH at 38% and a right answer brings back about 0.26.
Where forecasts come from
Coins with a pool deep enough to trust get six prices and four dates. The contract sets every number.
Who checks the answer
It reads the coin’s pool every 5 minutes. At the deadline, the median decides.
The forecast
Every coin gets one
A list of prices above and below where the coin is now. Each one has a chance and a payout. That’s the whole product.
How it pays
Everyone’s money sits on a scale
Money on yes goes in one pan, money on no in the other. When the market closes, the side that was right takes the whole scale, minus a 1% fee.
- The lighter side pays more. Fewer people agree with you, so you share the pot with fewer.
- The chance is just the weight. 38% chance means 38% of the money is on yes.
- Nothing to manage. Put your money in, wait for the date, collect if you were right.
How it works
Three steps, then it settles itself
Connect a wallet, pick a forecast, wait for the date. Nobody has to press anything for you to get paid.
- Pick a coinThe deepest coins on Pons have forecasts. Open the one you already hold.
- Say yes or noYour money joins the scale with everyone else’s. The payout moves until the market closes.
- Collect on the answerAt the deadline the contract takes the median of its readings of the coin’s pool, and winnings are ready to claim.
Live board
Open right now
| # | Coin | Price now | 24h | Since launch | Chance in 7 days · nearest prices |
|---|
The last answer
Nobody decided it. The chain did.
- No referee to trust
- No team deciding who won
- One median price, read at the deadline
Why you can trust the answer
Some forecasts are switched off
If pushing a coin’s price to a target costs less than the market could pay, someone could fake the answer. So the contract never opens that one. Below cost-to-payout, it stays off.
Hold the button to run the check yourself.
Where the money goes
1.00%
Every settled pot pays one percent, taken from what the winners collect. Refunds pay nothing. Five fixed shares split it, and none of them can change.
Questions
Before you connect
What does “38% chance” mean?
It’s how much of the money is on yes right now. At 38% a right answer pays about 2.6x. The lower the chance, the bigger the payout, and it keeps moving until the market closes.
Is there a token?
No token yet. When there is one, its address will be published in exactly three places: this site, the pinned post on X, and the bio. Any other address is not it.
Can someone fake the answer?
They can push a price, but not profitably. A market never holds more money than it would cost to hold the coin’s median price at the target, divided by 1.25, so faking it always loses. Try it with your own budget.
What if the coin crashes before the date?
The answer is still read at the deadline. A coin that falls hard settles “below” forecasts as yes and “above” forecasts as no. Nothing is cancelled for being inconvenient.
Can I take my money out early?
Not in this version. Money stays on the scale until the date, and the payout is fixed when the market closes.
What does it cost?
1% of each settled pot, taken from what the winners collect. A refunded market costs nothing. 80% of that fee goes to the reserve, 15% to the weekly league pot held by the team Safe, and 5% to whoever settles the market.
Who closes a market?
Anyone. When the deadline passes, the first wallet to call settle earns a small bounty. Our keeper usually gets there first, but it does not have to. See the queue.